IAF Digital Library

2

session 2

Title: Modeling and Risk Analysis
type: oral
Description: This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active collision avoidance.
Date: 2023-10-04
Time: 15:00
Room: BCC A6

IPC members

Co-Chair: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;
Co-Chair: Mr. Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC Corp., United States;
Rapporteur: Dr. Carmen Pardini, ISTI-CNR, Italy;

papers
Order	Time	Paper title	Mode	Presentation status	Speaker	Affiliation	Country
1	15:00	Multi-perspective analysis of sustainability metrics characterising the debris environment	13	confirmed	Mr. Lorenz Böttcher	TU Braunschweig, Institute of Space Systems	Germany
2	15:13	Evaluation of the effectiveness of 5-year rule -- Impact on the orbital environment at each altitude by reducing the post-mission disposal lifetime	13	confirmed	Dr. Satomi Kawamoto	Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)	Japan
3	15:26	Using Machine Learning to Predict Hypervelocity Fragment Propagation of Space Debris Collisions	13	confirmed	Ms. Katharine Larsen	Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University	United States
4	15:39	Extension of ESA’s Survival And Risk Analysis tool with hemisphere and lattice shapes	13	confirmed	Mr. MARTIN SPEL		France
5	15:52	Quantifying the Induced and Encountered Risk of Space Missions	13	confirmed	Mr. Callum Wilson	University of Strathclyde	United Kingdom
6	16:05	Large-scale mapping and analysis of collision avoidance manoeuvres with semi-analytical models	13	confirmed	Dr. Manuel Sanjurjo-Rivo	Universidad Carlos III de Madrid	Spain
7	16:18	Modelling collision risk in space traffic: a network-based perspective	13	withdrawn	Dr. Matteo Romano	University of Namur (FUNDP)	Belgium
8	16:31	Collision risk estimation in multi-event scenarios	13	confirmed	Mr. Óscar González Martínez	GMV Aerospace & Defence SAU, Spain	Spain
9	16:44	Swarm intelligence collision avoidance method for LEO communication satellites	13	confirmed	Ms. Kubra Mammadova	Azercosmos, Space Agency of Republic of Azerbaijan	Azerbaijan
10	16:57	Dynamic characterisation of space debris position and velocity probability density functions and their impact on tracking performance	13	confirmed	Dr. Sanat K Biswas	IIIT Delhi	India
11	17:10	Data-Driven Event and Maneuver Frequency Estimation for Large-Scale Satellite Constellations	13	withdrawn	Mr. Pol Mesalles Ripoll	SpaceNav, LLC	United States