IAF Digital Library

2

session 2

Title: Modeling and Risk Analysis
type: oral
Description: This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active collision avoidance.
Date: 2024-10-17
Time: 15:00
Room: Brown Hall 3

IPC members

Co-Chair: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;
Co-Chair: Mr. Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC Corp., United States;
Rapporteur: Dr. Carmen Pardini, ISTI-CNR, Italy;

papers
Order	Time	Paper title	Mode	Presentation status	Speaker	Affiliation	Country
1	15:00	Investigating the Prediction of Debris Risks Given Uncertainties in Models and Assumptions	10	confirmed	Dr. Anne Aryadne Bennett	Northrop Grumman Corporation	United States
2	15:10	estimating the environmental impacts of a derelict object on current and future operational spacecraft	10	confirmed	Mr. Pol Mesalles-Ripoll	SpaceNav, LLC	United States
3	15:20	a point process formulation for long term propagation of population statistics	10	confirmed	Dr. Christophe Taillan	Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES)	France
4	15:30	Operational model for computation of uncertainty window in tracking and impact prediction of uncontrolled artificial space objects re-entry on Earth	10	confirmed	Mr. Damiano Errico	Italian Air Force	Italy
5	15:40	Investigation of the demise behaviour of critical CubeSat components in a plasma wind tunnel	10	confirmed	Mr. Michael O'Donohue	KSat e.V.	Germany
6	15:50	On-orbit breakup forensics: analysis of measurement data to reconstruct fragmentation events in space	10	confirmed	Prof. Camilla Colombo	Politecnico di Milano	Italy
7	16:00	Debris proliferation modeling and risk analysis for cislunar orbits	10	confirmed	Mr. Arjun Chhabra	Princeton University	United States
8	16:10	Space Traffic Coordination Framework for Success	10	confirmed	Mr. Matthew Shouppe		United States
9	16:20	Integration of Air ANd Space Traffic Management: Establishing Criteria for Mitigating Space and Launch Debris Hazards	10	confirmed	Prof.Dr. Michael Kezirian	University of Southern California	United States
10	16:30	MAS – A Mission Analysis Software for Collision Risk Quantification and Impact Assessment of Rule-Based Decision-Making for Collision Avoidance	10	confirmed	Mr. Simon Burgis	TU Darmstadt	Germany
11	16:40	The impact of SATCON recommendations on the safety and sustainability of large constellations	10	confirmed	Ms. Megan Perks	University of Southampton	United Kingdom
12	16:50	Reassessment of target objects and mission requirements for active debris removal due to changes in the on-orbit environment	10	confirmed	Dr. Satomi Kawamoto	Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)	Japan